Bank of Canada & OECD See Ever Widening Economic Impact of Oil Collapse


The Bank of Canada’s Spring 2015 Business Outlook Survey (link to complete report below) released this week, gives more reason for serious concern regarding the economic prospects for all Canada, and the widening impact of Canada’s “natural resource curse”: it’s fossil fuel based economy. The report points to a significant increase in business pessimism about the economy as a whole, well beyond the oil economy, which is causing business to significantly reduce plans for capital spending and hiring. As I pointed out previously, the impact of the oil economy collapse is likely to reverberate throughout the Okanagan. The BofC report suggests that the impacts will be even deeper and more diverse. The report also looks to greater macroeconomic impacts: longer term weakness and volatility of the loonie. With Canadian interest rates at an all time low there is even the prospect of deflation. The report’s optimistic expectations for some upside from a robust U.S. economy have vanished this week, with projections of zero growth in the U.S. economy in 2015.

recession

Bank of Canada survey shows oil dimming business confidence

Read the complete Bank of Canada Report here: Business Outlook Survery – Spring 2015

Read about OECD Composite of Leading Indicators: OECD marks slowdown in Canada, even as other economies recover

Hiring intentions drop to lowest since 2009 in central bank’s quarterly scan of big companies

REBLOGGED from the CBC:  Pete Evans, CBC News Posted: Apr 06, 2015 11:46 AM ET Last Updated: Apr 06, 2015 9:29 PM ET

The Bank of Canada says cheaper oil prices are hurting sales forecasts and starting to hit confidence in industries far beyond the energy sector.

In its quarterly Business Outlook Survey, the central bank surveyed 100 representative companies across various Canadian industries and found that broadly speaking, cheaper oil has reduced sales expectations and cut into confidence in doing things like investing in new equipment and machinery, and possibly hiring new staff.

“More businesses than in previous surveys anticipate an outright decline in sales volumes,” the report said.

The survey interviewed business owners between the middle of February and the middle of March. The ongoing slump in oil prices had been underway for several months at that point, but it’s worth noting that Monday’s report is the first such survey since the central bank surprised markets with a rate cut at the end of January.

‘The oil price collapse is taking a toll’– TD Bank’s Leslie Preston

The survey “showed that firms are quite pessimistic about expanding their capacity over the next year,” TD economist Leslie Preston said. “The oil price collapse is taking a toll on Canada’s economy.”

Canada oil

The Bank of Canada’s quarterly survey suggests that gloom in the oil patch is starting to spread into different parts of the overall economy, potentially affecting hiring and purchases of new equipment. (Todd Korol/Reuters)

Although it remains in a range the bank calls “positive,” the outlook for hiring has dropped to its lowest level since 2009, when the world economy was in recession just about everywhere following the credit crisis.

Forty of the companies surveyed said they expect to hire more people in the next 12 months than they did in the previous 12. Another 40 said they expect to hire the same amount, with the remaining 20 saying they expect to hire less.

Good news?

If there’s a source of strength, it’s that the bank’s report suggests companies with strong ties to the U.S. economy are more upbeat. The U.S. is benefiting more from cheap oil than most economies, because it is the most diverse economy on earth and cheaper energy is good news for virtually every other sector.

“Firms’ outlook for the U.S. economy is generally strong, with the majority expecting this strength to support their future sales,” the report says. Cheaper oil has also hurt the loonie, which exporters to the U.S. cited as another reason for cautious optimism about sales from here on out.

Several firms reported foreign demand had increased thanks to the weakened Canadian dollar, but “while many firms outside the energy sector characterize the effects of lower oil prices and the weaker Canadian dollar as favourable for their business outlook, they expect some of the benefits to unfold only gradually in the future,” the report says.

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